Early in the year Turkey, to everyone’s surprise, calls for sanctions to be lifted. Observers note that this is primarily stimulated by fears of the loss of Iraqi sovereignty in the North leading to the strengthening of Kurdish separatists. British Home Secretary Douglas Hurd states on Turkish television: "We do not believe that an independent Kurdistan is possible."

Signs from Russia emerge that developments that allow Baghdad to repay long standing debts would be welcomed. Rolf Ekeus had insisted that a six month period of monitoring would have to take place after Iraqi compliance with SCR 715. A Russian diplomat posed the question of when this period would begin. "Our interests lie in reverting to Soviet alliances [with Iraq] because that’s where the money is."

(Simons makes the point that financial self-interest was starting to dent the sanctions policy more effectively than any humanitarian concern.)

February: The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies publishes its’ ‘Report of the Assessment Mission to Iraq.’ It concludes that only limited improvements to electrical generation, sewage treatment and water supplies have been made since 1991. Large ponds of stagnant water surround villages and suburban areas and represent major health hazards. Prior to the war Northern Iraq was free from malaria, but ‘…thousands of cases…’ are now being reported. The shortages of medicine and insecticides left ‘….little hope for any improvement in the short term…’ Other previously eradicated diseases are re-appearing.

6^th February: Ekeus again declares that Iraq has failed to provide sufficient information. Iraqi newspapers brand him as ‘…evil..’ and ‘…wretched…’.

April: The Iraqi Minister of Health announces that almost a quarter of all babies now have low birth weights, infant mortality has reached 126 per 1000 live births (up from 40 per 1000 in 1989), and many formerly eradicated diseases such as polio, cholera, scabies, typhoid, malaria, and diphtheria are all increasing dramatically.

An international forum, ‘Human Rights and Women’ is held in Baghdad. French representative Andree Michel denounces the ‘….barbaric blockade…’ She concludes that it ‘…violates all the resolutions of international law, particularly the articles of the Geneva Conventions…’

16^th February: BBC Middle East correspondent Tim Llewellyn speaks at a meeting of the Council for the Advancement of Arab-British Understanding:

"The claim by the Western governments that food and drugs flow freely into Iraq is not true. I have seen telexes and documents that showed clearly that the British and the American government interfered with the flow of crucial drugs into Iraq. That is unquestionable. […..The sanctions] would not be lifted even if Iraq satisfies the UN Security Council on every single sanction report….the Americans are making it clear that the sanctions are not going to be lifted under any circumstances…..the West’s decision is….to keep squeezing the country…..I do not see any possibility that oil will flow in Iraq between now and the end of 1994, and probably after that."

According to the Iraqi Health Minister, the monthly average of deaths prior to sanctions in 1990 was 2545. In 1991 it had risen to 7161. By early 1994 it was 11,193.

April: Medical Aid for Iraq undertakes another mission. Its’ findings are even worse than their previous report. ‘A general deterioration is widely reported over the last three months. Malnutrition and the increases in infection rates associated with it have resulted in a worsening situation and an increased shortage of medicines. Hospitals in Baghdad, where 25% of the population live, are experiencing particularly acute shortages.’

They note that infant formula is only available for those who’ve had diarrhoea for over two weeks, neo-natal units are virtually empty as they are no drugs to treat sick babies, flies are a serious problem, and anaemic children, with no access to iron supplements, are being given blood transfusions and risking infection from AIDS and hepatitis. Samawa Children’s hospital is serving 800,000 people with only 5% of the drugs required per month, and Kut General hospital has not had any supplies replenished by any NGO for twelve months.

29^th April: US Secretary of State Warren Christopher urges other countries not to be taken in by ‘…illusory…’ gestures of goodwill emanating from Baghdad. "The stakes are too high to give Mr. Hussein the benefit of the doubt, or to let our policy be dictated by commercial interests or simple fatigue." He goes on to claim that there is ‘…an instinct for repression…’ in Iraq, without ever mentioning the support the US gave Saddam in the ‘80’s. Indeed any compliance with UN resolutions should be regarded as a ‘…cynical tactic…’

May: The sanctions committee review upholds the embargo, despite the UNSCOM/Ekeus report that Iraq has now complied with their information demands and that a weapons monitoring system is being installed.

27^th May: In an international conference held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia issues a resolution condemning economic sanctions on Iraq, noting that despite compliance with SCR 687 they have still not been lifted: ‘We call upon the United States and its’ allies to withdraw all sanctions against the Iraqi people. A decent and humanitarian attitude towards the suffering of the people of Iraq would mandate the Clinton administration to withdraw the UN sanctions immediately.’

May 31^st: In a letter to ‘The Times’ British physician Dr. Harvey Marcovitch asks: ‘Saddam’s atrocity…or ours?’ He quotes a letter written to him by an Iraqi doctor:

‘Working in paediatric departments in Iraq has become a daily nightmare. Hospitals depend entirely on irregular and spasmodic donations brought in by charities which are like a drop of water on parched earth. In the diabetic clinic we have to divide four small bottles of insulin between 20 or 30 children while trying to clam their parents’ terror. For children with leukaemia to begin treatment, parents are forced to send money to buy drugs from Jordan. Parents sell their belongings and even their homes, and after bringing in the drugs the children are dying from uncontrolled infection.’

(Marcovitch later circulated the letter and accompanying photos to British paediatricians…..and received no response.)

June: The Iraqi Ministry of Culture and Information publishes its’ report ‘Impact of Oppressive Sanctions on Health, Nutrition and Environment in Iraq.’ The report concludes that raw sewage is being discharged into rivers at the rate of 5 cubic metres per second, performance of water treatment systems is reduced by 80% of the pre-war level, a reduction in waste collection and disposal due to lack of trucks and spare parts which in turn promotes airborne diseases, most civil engineering projects are abandoned, and green areas are diminishing as trees are felled to use as fuel.

August 3^rd: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Kolokov states that Baghdad must recognise the border demarcation, but emphasises that Iraq has now complied with the disarmament issue. His statement follows reports of negotiations between Iraq and the Soviet Union to develop oil fields after sanctions are lifted.

Turkey suggests the flushing of a disused pipeline in preparation of renewed oil sales.

August 28^th: King Hussein and President Suleyman of Turkey call for an easing of sanctions at a press conference in Amman

September 13^th: Ekeus announces his intention to commence a six month weapons monitoring period, after a which a recommendation for lifting sanctions could be made. A British official states: ‘The difficulty with cut-off points is that all the Iraqis have to do is sit back and be good boys.’

UNICEF reports that 100,000 children are expected to die from sanctions by the end of the year. (This figure was actually exceeded.)

Later in the month the Iraqi government ration of basic foodstuffs is halved due to lack of supplies. Britain and the US refuse to meet with Tariq Aziz to discuss the worsening conditions. Ekeus, whilst doubting he had all the necessary weapons information, reckons that ‘….a decisive situation…’ was soon forthcoming that would oblige the Security Council to lift sanctions. He states: "We do want Iraq to see light at the end of the tunnel……without progress Iraq can conclude it is not worth co-operating."

By the end of the year unemployment in Iraq is rampant and inflation is running at 24,000%.

(Inflation was also a key factor in blocking exports to the country. Simons quotes a British businessman who describes the tortuous process of attempting to send medical supplies:

"Before any individual or company can talk to an Iraqi buyer, they must apply for a licence to negotiate. Licences to negotiate can take three to four weeks to issue. Only when the licence is issued can you start talking without breaking the law. Once the buyer and seller agree [a price] the seller must then apply for a supply licence, which can take up to twenty weeks to issue. In the meantime the Iraqi Dinar is suffering daily devaluation and inflation beyond control. Twenty weeks later the seller receives the supply licence by which time the buyer’s situation has changed. This forces the buyer to cancel the order, or, at best, reduce the quality or quantity of the goods in order to raise the hard currency needed to finance the purchase. But [the Sanctions Committee insist that] any change to the application means that the entire process must start again."

One time chairman of the Sanctions Committee Peter Hohenfeller had commented in an interview on May 20^th 1992 that the need for the agreement of every member of the Committee ‘….makes the work much more difficult....you could not necessarily respond very efficiently to the needs of the population.’)

Saddam woos former friends with promises of lucrative contracts if they support the campaign against the embargo. Russia, China and France all respond favourably to these overtures. Saddam is also partially rebuilding the military by acquiring spare parts from Eastern Europe, and through front companies set up in the 1980’s. They continue to service the Iraqi military via sales from France, Monaco, Switzerland, Germany, Britain and the US.

3^rd October: With growing confidence among the Iraqi leadership, Information minister Hammed Youssef Hammadi tells the national news agency in Baghdad that if the embargo continues: "We will have no choice but to find another way to deal with the Security Council and its’ American plans."

4^th October: Iraqi authorities announce they will not co-operate with a visiting UN envoy on arms control if no assurance is given that sanctions will be eased.

6^th October: The Iraqi Revolutionary Command Council makes a statement to the Security Council, also broadcast on Baghdad radio, which indicates the ‘…clear and unequivocal…’ threat not to comply with UNSCOM without assurances that sanctions will be relaxed. Government newspapers underline the point and claim that Ekeus is no longer trustworthy. Temporary Security Council President David Hannay issues a document noting ‘….with grave concern..’ the Iraqi statement, and emphasises ‘…the complete unacceptability of the implication therein that Iraq may withdraw co-operation…’ The document also references reports that ‘….substantial numbers of Iraqi troops…’ were being deployed to the Kuwaiti border.

The US responds by moving additional forces to the region. Clinton declares: "We will not allow Saddam Hussein to defy the will of the US and the international community."

The UN discloses that its’ UNIKOM reconnaissance aircraft, which provide a 20 kilometre view across the border, ‘…had not managed to detect a single tank or personnel carrier…’

(Even Israel suggested that the ‘crisis’ was being manufactured by the US. Yitzhak Rabin and senior Israeli officers stated: ‘Saddam Hussein had neither the air cover nor the man power to invade Kuwait, that the Republican Guard divisions were not deployed in an aggressive posture, that there was, in short, no impending catastrophe.’)

13^th October: Chief UNSCOM field officer in Baghdad, Jaako Ylitalo, states: ‘They [the Iraqis] have done an excellent job. Our commission is convinced it’s all over. It is watertight. We have faith in the work we have done.’

A subsequent report presented in New York confirmed his broad conclusion.

14^th October: Iraq, through a joint Iraqi/Soviet statement agrees to recognise the sovereignty of Kuwait as decreed in SCR 833. This is one of the primary reasons Washington has maintained the embargo.

15^th October. SCR 949 is passed unanimously, and condemns the ‘..recent military deployments by Iraq in the direction of the border with Kuwait…’ and calls for a withdrawal and no repetition of the threat.

(SCR 949 successfully obscured the Iraqi recognition of Kuwait. British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd described the recognition as ‘..inadequate…’ and that there would still be an ‘…Iraqi threat when British and American soldiers have gone home…..Saddam’s mailed fist will still be over Kuwait and her neighbours.’)

16^th October: The US threatens Iraq with fresh air attacks. Warren Christopher states: ‘There is no occasion for doing Saddam Hussein any favours at the present time.’ Madeleine Albright accuses Saddam of ‘…building pleasure palaces…’ and circulates photos around the Security Council to prove it. Russian UN envoy Sergei Lavovr points out: ‘I don’t recall that building palaces was prohibited by Security Council resolutions.’ French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe comments: ‘I think it belongs to the Security Council to decide what must be done.’

(Albright later appeared on a US television talk show and announced that the area of Iraq south of the 32^nd parallel was ‘….vital to US interests…’ and told the UN Security Council that the US was prepared to go it alone: "We will behave multilaterally when we can and unilaterally when we must."

Thus the difference between UN ‘authority’ and US ‘interests’ was starkly and publicly revealed.)

November: Early in the month the Iraqi National Assembly passes a formal resolution to confirm recognition of Kuwait. White House spokeswoman Dee Dee Myers responds that there are ‘…a number of other elements in UN resolutions that Iraq must adhere to.’ This stance is echoed in London: ‘…this is only one of the things we have been looking to Saddam to do.’

(Simons quotes two articles from ‘The Guardian’ and one from ‘Gulf Newsletter’:

"Sanctions will never be lifted because the US and Britain do not trust Saddam not to pose a threat."

Sanctions cannot be lifted ‘…whatever the degree of Iraqi compliance with UN resolutions as long as President Saddam remains in power.’

"Washington is determined to maintain sanctions and avoid discussion of the underlying issues."

He also quotes from that period Dr. Siegwart Gunther, President of Yellow Cross International of Austria, who reflects on the psychological effects the war and continuing over-flights by allied planes have had.

‘Many children exhibit permanent damage of speech. During thunder storms they start shivering all over the body and begin to stutter in fear…..in Mosul the suicide cases of children are very high. I myself witnessed [….] 12 allied jets appearing over the town at very low altitudes. Window panes rattled, children ran screaming to seek protection in the houses.’)

December: Another Medical Aid For Iraq mission reports that the situation is again even worse than during their last visit: ‘A severe deterioration is detectable in all the hospitals visited by MAI. The team had not expected to see such an extreme reduction of resources, given the desperate situation of the hospitals in April; further deterioration had been hard to imagine. Basic medicines are absent, routine surgery impossible, and more and more equipment is breaking down and put out of use because of the unavailability of spare parts. Children are referred to Baghdad because treatment is unavailable at their local hospital, but the Baghdad hospitals can not provide for them either.’

They note that the general deterioration was ‘…unprecedented…’ and that al-Wiyah hospital in Baghdad was full of sick and dying children unable to receive treatment as they had run out of ALL medicines.

10^th-12^th December: The International Scientific Symposium is held in Baghdad and presents evidence of the impact of the war and sanctions on the health of the Iraqi people. It confirms all NGO and UN agency findings, and notes the increase in cancers and congenital abnormalities, particularly of ambiguous genitalia, skeletal abnormalities and hydrocephaly.

(The spectre of the effects of radioactive fallout from attacks on nuclear facilities, and the enormously widespread allied use of Depleted Uranium ammunition was beginning to be felt.)

By the end of 1994, those in work saw their salaries increase from the 1990 level by 2 to 3 times, against food prices that had risen from between 32 and 1000 times. Inflation resulted in highly qualified professors, engineers and doctors earning the equivalent daily wage of less than the price of an egg.

The Secretary General’s report to the Security Council on weapons inspection states: ‘All items verified as being proscribed have now been destroyed. The ongoing monitoring and verification system is provisionally operational. The major elements for chemical and missile monitoring are now in place. Interim monitoring in the biological area is about to commence.'

(The biological aspect now became the main issue, as the UN now conceded that nuclear and chemical weapons had been destroyed. Iraqi defector General Wafiq al Sammarra, a former head of Iraqi Military Intelligence, told ‘The Sunday Times’ in London that Iraq had retained an arsenal of biological materials and 80 Scud missiles by burying them. Rolf Ekeus moved to confirm that biological capability was still being hidden.)

According to Iraq / UNICEF figures, 503,573 children under twelve had now died from sanctions.